• Introducing Cumulative Prime Value (CPV)
    • CPV is a new measure for evaluating Hall Of Fame worthiness.
      • Aims to lessen issues inherent in other methods.
      • Acknowledges that Wins Above Average (WAA) are more important than Wins Below Average (WBA).
      • Removes the WAR Longevity Bonus of Wins Below Average (WBA).
      • Removes the WAA Longevity Penalty of declining WAA later in a career.
    • CPV is the accumulation of Career WAA over a players' Prime.
      • AFTER the low-point of negative Career WAA early in a career.
      • BEFORE the decline of Career WAA later in a career.
    • CPV balances Peak with Longevity.
      • As long as a player continues to post positive WAA, CPV will continue to increase.
      • As WAA declines, CPV is locked at highest accumulated Value.
      • A player can continue to play, adding to counting stats, without being penalized.
    • Miguel Cabrera
      • Initial phase age 20 season (-0.5 WAA)
      • Decline phase after age 33 season (-12.2 WAA)
        • This career segment got him to 3,000 Hits and 500 Home Runs.
        • But it also reduced his Career WAA by over 30%, from 39.9 down to 27.7.
      • Between initial and decline phases is player Prime, where Miguel accumulated CPV of 40.3.
      • CPV of 40.3 is a definite HOFer, which describes Miguel.
      • Career WAA of 27.7 is a borderline HOFer, which DOES NOT describe Miguel.
  • Wins Above Average (WAA)  >  Wins Below Average (WBA)
    • Wins Below Average (WBA) = WAR - WAA
      • WBA = Wins between Replacement Level and Average Level.
      • Example: Ernie Banks' Career WAR = 67.7; Career WAA = 28.7; Career WBA = 67.7 - 28.7 = 39.0
    • Longevity Group
      • Players where WAA < WBA
      • Majority of Career WAR is from Wins Below Average.
      • Ernie Banks is in Longevity Group, along with Eddie Murray, Miguel Cabrera, Dave Winfield, Ichiro Suzuki.
    • Peak Group
      • Players where WAA > WBA
      • Majority of Career WAR is from Wins Above Average.
      • Jackie Robinson is in Peak Group, along with Lou Boudreau, Ryne Sandberg, Chase Utley, Kenny Lofton.

    • Players with Career WAR 60.0 - 69.9 (1901 - 2023; Retired OR Not Active in 2024)
      • HOF Averages Seasons
      Group Players HOF Eligible HOF HOF Pct PA H HR SLG WAR WAR Peak 7 WAR / 500 PA WAA WAA Peak 7 WAA / 500 PA OPS+ WAR >= 5.0 / WAA < 0.0
      Longevity Group
      WAA < WBA      		 23 21 15 71% 10535.2 2687.7 333.7 .463 64.9 41.7 3.1 29.3 26.4 1.4 122.8 5.6 / 5.1
      Peak Group
      WAA > WBA      		 25 23 11 48% 8494.8 2164.8 267.0 .476 64.9 44.7 3.8 36.5 29.8 2.1 129.6 6.0 / 3.3
      Longevity Group
      Marginal Difference      		 2040.4 522.9 66.7 .414 0.0 -3.0 -0.7 -7.2 -3.4 -0.7 94.6 -0.4 / 1.8
    • Longevity Group vs Peak Group
      • WAR for each group is equal (64.9).
      • Player count in each group is similar (23 vs 25).
      • Longevity Group
        • 48% more HOFers.
        • 2040 more PA; 523 more H; 67 more HR.
        • 1.1 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR >= 5) for every Below Average season (WAA < 0)
      • Peak Group
        • Higher Peak 7 for WAR and WAA, higher Per 500 PA for WAR and WAA, higher OPS+, higher SLG, more All-Star caliber seasons, fewer Below Average Value seasons.
        • 1.8 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR >= 5) for every Below Average season (WAA < 0)
      • Longevity Group Marginal Difference
        • Additional 2040 PAs resulted in Below Average OPS+ (OPS+ = 94.6) and Replacement Level Value (WAR = 0).
    • Conclusions
      • Peak Group outperformed contemporaries by wider margin (25% higher WAA; 7% higher OPS+).
      • WAA is more indicative of outstanding performance than WBA, and therefore WAR, as well.
      • Longevity Group boosted counting stats while performing at Replacement Level.
      • Counting stats more important than WAA for getting into HOF.
  • WAR Longevity Bonus
    • Ernie Banks Career Segments
      • Ernie Banks Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      1953 - 1962 10 57.8 5.8 35.6 3.6 35.6 HOF SS after 1960 season
      SS - #18 Career WAR; #14 Career WAA; #16 CPV
      1963 - 1971 9 9.9 1.1 -6.9 -0.9 0.0 Below Average Value over 9 seasons
      Career WAR +17%; Career WAA -19%; JAWS SS Rank from 17 to 8
      Total 19 67.7 3.6 28.7 1.5 35.6 6 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      SS - #15 Career WAR; #20 Career WAA; #16 CPV
    • Eddie Murray Career Segments
      • Eddie Murray Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      1977 - 1990 14 63.6 4.5 34.3 2.5 34.3 HOF 1B after 1987 season
      1B - #17 Career WAR; #17 Career WAA; #22 CPV
      1991 - 1997 7 5.1 0.7 -6.9 -1.0 0.0 Below Average Value over 7 seasons
      Career WAR +8%; Career WAA -20%
      Total 21 68.7 3.3 27.4 1.3 34.3 5 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      1B - #14 Career WAR; #30 Career WAA; #22 CPV
    • Dave Winfield Career Segments
      • Dave Winfield Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      1973 - 1988 16 59.5 3.7 29.4 1.8 29.8 HOF RF after 1988 season
      RF - #24 Career WAR; #22 Career WAA; #29 CPV
      1990 - 1995 6 4.7 0.8 -5.4 -0.9 0.0 Below Average Value over 6 seasons
      Career WAR +8%; Career WAA -18%
      Total 22 64.2 2.9 24.0 1.1 29.8 5 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      RF - #19 Career WAR; #34 Career WAA; #29 CPV
    • Harold Baines Career Segments
      • Harold Baines Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      1980 - 1986 7 16.6 2.4 3.6 0.5 5.9 Above Average Value over 7 seasons
      1987 - 2001 15 22.2 1.5 -1.7 -0.1 1.2 Below Average Value over 15 seasons
      Career WAR +134%; Career WAA -47%
      Total 22 38.8 1.8 1.9 0.1 7.1 Zero All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      RF - #63 Career WAR; #175 Career WAA; #133 CPV
    • Conclusions
      • WAR
        • Offers Positive Value for Below Average performance.
        • WBA can make up a significant portion of Career WAR (Ernie Banks 58%, Eddie Murray 60%, Dave Winfield 63%, Harold Baines 95%).
        • Important when evaluating a player versus the universe of players, AAA and above.
        • Less important when evaluating Hall Of Fame worthiness.
        • For example, 20 seasons of Average Value (WAA = 0), which would total around 40 WAR, should not be considered HOF-worthy.
      • WAA
        • Offers Positive Value ONLY for Above Average performance versus MLB universe of players.
        • WBA makes up 0% of Career WAA
  • WAA Longevity Penalty
    • Miguel Cabrera Career Segments
      • Miguel Cabrera Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      2003 - 2016 14 69.8 5.0 39.9 2.9 40.3 HOF 1B after 2013 season
      1B - #14 Career WAR; #11 Career WAA; #11 CPV
      2017 - 2023 7 -2.7 -0.4 -12.2 -1.7 0.0 Below Replacement Value over 7 seasons
      Career WAR -4%; Career WAA -31%
      Total 21 67.1 3.2 27.7 1.3 40.3 9 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      1B - #15 Career WAR; #28 Career WAA; #11 CPV
    • Pete Rose Career Segments
      • Pete Rose Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      1963 - 1979 17 80.8 4.8 42.6 2.5 43.7 HOF LF after 1973 season
      LF - #7 Career WAR; #7 Career WAA; #8 CPV
      1980 - 1986 7 -1.3 -0.2 -13.6 -1.9 0.0 Below Replacement Value over 7 seasons
      Career WAR -2%; Career WAA -32%
      Total 24 79.5 3.3 29.0 1.2 43.7 8 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      LF - #7 Career WAR; #17 Career WAA; #8 CPV
    • Albert Pujols Career Segments
      • Albert Pujols Seasons WAR WAR / Season WAA WAA / Season CPV Notes
      2001 - 2015 15 99.9 6.7 69.3 4.6 69.3 HOF 1B after 2007 season
      1B - #3 Career WAR; #3 Career WAA; #3 CPV
      2016 - 2022 7 1.6 0.2 -9.1 -1.3 0.0 Barely Above Replacement Value over 7 seasons
      Career WAR +2%; Career WAA -13%
      Total 22 101.5 4.6 60.2 2.7 69.3 11 All-Star caliber seasons (WAR 5+)
      1B - #3 Career WAR; #3 Career WAA; #3 CPV
    • Conclusions
      • Extending a career can hurt Career WAA, while helping counting stats.
      • Below Average Value in decline phase of career reduces Career WAA, but doesn't change the Value of prior Prime seasons.
      • Playing more years at Below Average Value should not detract from the player's Prime level of excellence.